STATISTICS-BULGARIA-EU

Bulgaria Enters EU with 14% Poverty Rate, 20% Grey Economy,
Official Statistics Show


Sofia, January 29 (BTA) - Alexander Hadjiiski, President of the
National Statistical Institute (NSI), was interviewed by BTA.

Q: What are the main challenges to national statistics ensuing
from Bulgaria's entry into the EU?

A: The number one challenge is quality, which does not imply
that NSI data are inaccurate. A European Statistics Code of
Practice was published in 2005 - a document we are bound to
strictly comply with. In addition to time limits, the document
includes the obligation for statistics to provide analysis. We
are planning to have two units with analytical groups dealing
with demographic and macroeconomic analyses. The time limit for
implementing the Code's requirements is 2012. As to the NSI in
particular, administrative reform is the main challenge.

Q: What do you mean?

A: One of the key problems now is the lack of administrative
registers. For example, the Education Ministry has no database
of the number of school students. That is why our experts at the
territorial subunits have to go round the schools. In addition,
the NSI's current structure - a head office and 28 territorial
offices - results in superfluous administration.

Q: Do you mean there will be downsizing?

A: No. A Phare project envisages creating remote directorates in
the six planning regions, which will replace the territorial
units. The redundant employees will be transferred to the head
office, where there is a staff shortage. This is particularly
relevant in view of our plans to make analyses and maintain an
online database.

Q: Could you give the earliest date when the NSI can implement
administrative reform?

A: We will submit a six-year strategy adjusted to the European
strategy until 2012 to the Council of Ministers by the end of
January. The document includes the timeline of setting up the
remote directorates.

Q: How much financing has been planned for the six-year period
and what is its source?

A: The financing needed is 46 million leva, of which over 20 per
cent will be provided under the Phare Programme, for example,
for the statistical register project.

Q: When will online data provision become possible?

A: The NSI has a regional, predominantly demographic, database.
Other data are being entered and will be released on a thematic
basis, e.g. financial and non-financial statistics.

Q: What is Bulgaria's poverty rate on its entry into the EU?

A: It is 14 per cent according to our data based on the European
method for calculation on the basis of expenses, not of incomes
as is the case with the US method.

Q: What progress has been made in the NSI and Gallup survey for
determining the poverty line according to European standards and
methods?

A: It depends on which of the three European methods is adopted.
This is about the weight of the expenses of the head of the
household, the wife and the children. In Bulgaria it is assumed
that the head of the household makes the largest portion of
expenses, while a child accounts for 0.25 per cent of them, i.e.
most expenses are made by one member of the household. The use
of different models will not cause sizable differences in the
poverty rate - 14.2 per cent or 14.8 per cent, depending on the
model used.

Q: Will there be changes in the large consumer basket?

A: The draft consumer basket will contain 528 commodities in
2007, instead of 531, and 19 commodities will be replaced. For
instance, the 330-ml bottle of de luxe Bulgarian beer is
replaced by a 500-ml bottle; A-92 unleaded petrol is replaced by
A-95; the CD player will be replaced by an mp3 player. The rule
is that replacements are found for little or no longer used
commodities.

In 2008, the NSI will start publishing two inflation indices.
One is national, and the other will be calculated using the same
method but will include products common to the whole of Europe.

Q: Will the time come when Bulgarians will be able to use an
online calculator of their household's inflation over a cup of
coffee? This has recently become possible in Britain.

A: We are looking into this, but we must finish working on the
consumer basket first.

Q: Could you cite the percentage of the grey economy at the time
of Bulgaria's entry into the EU?

A: With the proviso that the grey economy is beyond the scope of
official statistics, I would put it at about 20 per cent,
speaking as an expert, not as a statistician. Mirror studies
based on customs declarations in Bulgaria and another country
show glaring examples of goods worth millions of dollars, which
disappeared after being imported in or exported from Bulgaria.

Q: Where does Bulgaria stand in Europe in terms of the grey
economy?

A: A British colleague statistician once told me that when he
said the grey economy in his country was about 7 or 8 per cent,
he caused an outcry because three million unregistered workers
enter Britain every year. In any case, the proportion of the
grey economy in the European countries is two or three times
smaller than in Bulgaria.

Q: What new observations will the NSI make in 2007?

A: The most interesting ones are of working conditions, the
value of labour power, and social protection. I am talking about
what is known as the poverty umbrella - how many Bulgarians it
covers and how they are covered.
BTA

Source: BTA